|
|
|
|
Preview and Predictions for UFC 118 in Boston
26 Aug 2010
By Chris Shanks
This Saturday the UFC heads for Boston for the first time with a stacked card focusing on the Lightweight division. The main event is a Lightweight Championship rematch between BJ Penn and Frankie Edgar. Co main event is James “Lights out” Toney Vs Randy “The Natural” Couture. Preceding that Kenny Florian Vs Gray Maynard in a number one contender match up for a Lightweight Championship fight . This is a card that I am really looking forward too, so lets begin.
BJ Penn, was edged in a very controversial loss at UFC 112. I am not taking anything away from Frankie Edgar he did very well to win the belt, with his fast feet work and boxing skill. Adding to that no one give him a chance because of the size difference and the fact that he should really be a featherweight even though he won't admit it.
The thing about Penn is, he got too comfortable as the champion, being called the greatest lightweight of all time. Throughout the history of the UFC there has been incidents of fighters getting too comfortable at the top of the game and as a result coming up short. It's only to be expected really, some have said that its easy getting to the top, the hardest thing is staying there. You have to think like a champion to really understand what I mean. Your a champion, you have made it to the top, you have the belt. The problem is that there is no where to go from the top, except down. You can build a legacy yes, but to do that you need to focus on staying at the top. The problem with this is, everyone wants to be where you are. So they are looking out for the weaknesses that may be in your game, that means every single time you fight you need to come up with something that no one is expecting.
I think that at UFC 112 BJ Penn underestimated Edgar. Think about it, BJ Penn could out wrestle Frankie because of the size difference, Penn has more in the power department than Edgar. Meaning that all it takes is one cleanly connected strike. It was all rapped up for BJ before the fight had actually begun. The fact that Frankie Edgar is smaller has its advantages, you can move faster as a smaller guy and you don't need to cut a lot of weight which showed in the fight. Frankie was able to push the pace in the championship rounds, that's why he won the fight in my opinion.
OK, so we know why 112 ended as it did, so your saying now, “50 pound on Edgar, Same again please!” I don't see that happening. BJ Penn is pissed! And a pissed BJ Penn is an animal, look at the Diego Sanchez and Kenny Florian fights. The one thing you don't want to do when your up against the Prodigy is talk smack or have the belt, if you do, he will come out and try to kill you. Simple as that!
What BJ Penn needs to do thinking technically, is take control of the fight in the opening round. Edgar is incredibly fast you need to cut off the cage and land bombs. I would think about changing levels to try and confuse Frankie, one of the big problems in the last fight was that Penn looked very static.
Frankie Edgar on the other hand, needs to come in with something that BJ is not expecting. You shocked him once, but after thinking about this, I don't know how he can do it again. You could try and take it to the ground, if you do, you run the risk of being choked out. I guess you could forget anything technical and just swing for the fences and hope that something lands. Obviously this isn't advisable because Penn is a good counter puncher.
Whatever happens, I can't see past BJ in this fight, time and time again he has proved that if you piss him off or have something he wants, then you have a contract on your head that he is going to cash In.
The co main event, is something that I have already gone into detail about in Wednesday's post so I am not going to go over it again. However I would like to add to it.
The more I think about this fight the more I get worried that James Toney might win. A lot of people are underestimating this man. We need to remember that every fight starts on the feet. Granted that Couture will shoot in the first 10 seconds but if he is unable to get Toney down, then in my view he is in very hot water. You need to consider that Toney has the best striking in the UFC by a mile, yes you could argue that MMA striking is different but I am not buying that. If a UFC fighter is hit by James Toney 9.5 times out of 10 its game over, lights out, “Cheque please!” If Toney has the opportunity to hit Randy then he is in trouble because I don't see his chin withstanding that. In the Clinch it's no better, consider this, James Toney will be able to get the same if not more power with a punch in the clinch that Couture would probably get in a straight right hook.
But I still have faith that Captain America is going to pull this one off and save the pride of our industry. You have to give James Toney props for trying though right?
The final fight that I want to talk about is Kenny Florian Vs Gray Maynard. Kenny is the type of fighter that goes balls to the walls, destroys people, gets a title shot and then does something stupid. Gray Maynard is hungry for the shot that should have been his a long time ago.
I don't know if Maynard has what it takes to pull this one off. Kenny is the more technical striker and has good BJJ on the ground. Maynard only has to land once to knock you out because he is like a pit bull, if he connects your probably going to wake up on your back. The fight is in Boston which is the home town of Florian so you would expect the fans to be on his side 100% that may give him an edge.
For this fight I see Florian taking it by decision. He will get the points for being more technical but I don't thing he has the power in his hands to to knock Maynard out.
I want to know what you think?
Mailbag: Chrisshanks@hotmail.co.uk
Twitter: @chrisshanksmma
|
|
|
|