By Dean Weir

Prudential Centre, Newark, New Jersey, U.S.A.
Sunday 28th March 2010.
03:00 UK Time.
Live on ESPN.
(Prelims Live @ 02:00).
   
The UFC returns to Newark, New Jersey for the first time since November 2007 with a mouthwatering card that includes two Title fights. Georges St Pierre and the UK's Dan Hardy will lock horns for the Welterweight Title, immediately following Frank Mirs battle with the unbeaten Shane Carwin for the Interim Heavyweight Title.
As well as the Title fights, Joe Silva has put together an excellent array of match-ups in what promises to be the most exciting UFC event for sometime.

Preliminary Card (Un-aired) :-

Matthew Riddle (3-1-0) vs. Greg Soto (7-0-0) pits together two wrestling based combatants. Soto is making his UFC debut as a replacement for the injured Ricardo Funch. Also a BJJ purple belt, he is an assistant instructor at Pelligrino MMA. Soto's unbeaten record has been reached in the smaller shows on the US scene. Two decisions, two KO's and three submissions suggest he is fairly well rounded, and will certainly be a tough test for Riddle. The TUF 7 cast member is coming off a recent defeat to Nick Osipczak at UFC 105 in Manchester. All of Riddle's professional fights have been in the UFC and has ground out three decision victories prior to the Osipczak defeat. Possessing a purple belt in BJJ would suggest that he has more to his game than he has showed to date. Training at Extreme Couture with, arguably, the best stable in MMA will have undoubtedly helped his all round game improve. Expect most of this contest be fought on the ground where both fighters are most at home. Unlikely to be fight of the night but could be a technical grappling contest.
Prediction :- Soto by Decision.

Tomasz Drwal (17-2-0) vs. Rousimar Palhares (10-2-0) sees Polands Drwal remaining at Middleweight to take on the Brazilian Palhares. Drwal is coming off a submission victory over Drew McFredies at UFC 103 in September last year, however he is better known for his tremendous KO power. A reputation that was earned at Light Heavyweight with ten KO victories, and one that he is certain to cement at this weightclass. Whether he will gain that first KO at Middleweight is unlikely to be easy against the very tough, and durable, Palhares. The Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt has yet to be stopped in his career and has gone the distance with both Jeremy Horn (win) and Dan Henderson (loss) in recent contests. Drwal will aim to keep this contest on the feet, whereas Palhares will undoubtedly, want to take this to the mat where he can impose his far superior Jiu-Jitsu.
Prediction :- Palhares by Submission - R2.

Jared Hamman (11-2-0) vs. Rodney Wallace (9-1-0) throws together two fighters who are both coming off losses. Hamman suffered his second KO loss to Alexander Gustaffson at UFC 105 and Wallace lost via decision to Brian Stann at the TUF 10 finale. How this contest will pan out will be interesting. Hamman has never been the distance and Wallace has never been stopped and has gone the full distance on six occasions. A possible contender for "Fight of the Night" if these two can keep the pace to the third round.
Prediction :- Wallace by Decision.

Fabricio Camoes (10-4-1) vs. Kurt Pellegrino (14-4-0) is a Lightweight contest that has two BJJ fighters, with similar professional records, competing in the octagon. Pellegrino has, however, fought a much higher calibre of opponent including Joe Stevenson, Josh Neer and Nate Diaz. Camoes is making only his second appearance in the UFC, after a draw with Caol Uno at UFC 106 in November of last year. Neither has been KO'd and neither has a great record in KO victories, Pellegrino with just one and Camoes with two. This is likely to be another technical bout fought, the majority of the time, on the ground. The advantage is likely to be with Pellegrino due to his experience with higher calibre opponent and his extra wrestling prowess.
Prediction :- Pellegrino by Decision.

PRELIMINARY CARD (02:00) :-

Ricardo Almeida (11-3-0) vs. Matt Brown (11-7-0) is the first of the nights televised bouts, and what a match-up this promises to be. "Big Dog" taking on the "Immortal". The classic Jiu-Jitsu fighter against the relentless stand up puncher. Brown has never been KO'd and Almeida has never had the KO victory, so "The Immortal" is not likely to be concerned about his opponents punching power. He does, however, face a very different problem when it comes to the "Big Dogs" submission skills. The longer this contest remains stood, the more the advantage will remain with Brown. Even though he possesses a BJJ blue belt, he is not in the same class as his illustrious opponent on the floor. Brown will have been drilling his takedown defence religiously for this contest. Almeida, on the other hand, will want to take this to the ground at the first opportunity and will, undoubtedly, attempt to do so at the slightest of opportunities as he will have noted that Browns is susceptible to submissions, with five losses coming via submission.
Prediction :- Almeida by Submission - R2.
 

Nate Diaz (11-5-0) vs. Rory Markham (16-5-0) sees the TUF 5 winner making his first appearence in the Welterweight division. He lost 3 of his last 4 fights at Lightweight, all by decision, to Clay Guida, Joe Stevenson and Gray Maynard. Diaz has only ever been stopped once, a submission by Hermes Franca in 2006. He has never been knocked out. Rory Markham, on the flipside, has never been the full 3 rounds. He has 5 defeats - all by KO/TKO - he has never been submitted. This contest is sure to see an end to one of those records held by the two comabatants. It is unlikely that Diaz will have the power to KO Markham at this heavier weight class, but he does have the ability to submit anybody once he gets the fight to the ground, especially so in this contest, where his opponent is like a fish out of water on the ground. Markham, however, does have the power to KO Diaz assuming he can land cleanly enough on his slippery opponent. Naturally Markham will want this stood up from start to finish, as he will want to avoid any dealings with Diaz on the ground. Diaz will not be afraid to stay stood up as he has proven many times, but he would much prefer to take it to the floor where he has a massive advantage.
Prediction :- Diaz by Submission - R3.

MAIN CARD (03:00) :-

Mark Bocek (8-2-0) vs. Jim Miller (16-2-0) sees local boy Miller welcoming the Canadian Bocek to the New Jersey octagon. Both are BJJ practioners, Bocek holding a black belt and Miller a brown belt. They hold a total of 16 submission victories between them. Bocek has been defeated via submission on one occasion, to Mac Danzig at UFC 83, whereas Miller has never been stopped by submission, nor KO. Bocek will want to make this a ground game as soon as is possible as he will feel he has the advantage. Miller on the otherhand will be more than happy to keep this standing where he can utilise his much superior stand up to add to his 2 KO victories that he already holds. The gritty Miller will not be overly concerned if he cannot remain on his feet and will be happy to compete on the ground also. Both have losses to Frankie Edgar, Miller by decision and Bocek via TKO, and both fought Mac Danzig, with Miller being victorious and Bocek being defeated as mentioned earlier. The telling factor in this contest is likely to be experience and, arguably, better opposition faced by Miller.
Prediction :- Miller by KO - R2.

Thiago Alves (16-6-0) vs. Jon Fitch (21-3-0) is the second meeting between these two top Welterweight contenders. Fitch was the victor, via TKO, in the previous meeting at UFN 5 in June 2008. The stakes are high in this contest with the winner likely gaining another shot at the belt, which both have had before, and which both ended the same way, decision losses to Georges St. Pierre. Alves is a Muay Thai practioner who also holds a BJJ purple belt and holds a record of 11 wins via KO/TKO. Fitch is a NCAA Division 1 wrestler and a black belt in Guerilla Jiu-Jitsu so will want this fight to take place on the ground where he can impose his far superior wrestling ability. Alves will have been working on his takedown defence since his last outing against GSP, and he will need it against the relentless Fitch. Alves has the superior stand up and will be hoping he can keep it there and look for the KO. The outcome of this bout will depend on whether Alves can withstand the persistent takedown attempts from Fitch and keep it stood where he can utilise his excellent Muay Thai.
Prediction :- Fitch by Decision. 

Jake Ellenberger (22-5-0) vs. Ben Saunders (8-1-2) is a strange choice to have so high on the main card as neither are considered "top" contenders, however, it has the makings of being a great contest that could warrant such a position. Ellenberger is a replacement for Saunders' original opponent Martin Kampmann who had to pull out due to injury. He has amassed 22 wins from 27 pro contests and this is his 3rd UFC appearence following a debut loss to Carlos Condit and, in his last outing, a TKO victory over Mike Pyle. He has been stopped on one occasion, via submission to Delson Heleno in 2007. He is well rounded and has notched up 14 KO and 4 submissions in his 22 victories. Saunders is a Jeet Kune Do exponent, has 4 KO wins, along with 3 submissions, which suggests he has a well rounded style also. This will be Saunders' 6th appearence in the UFC Octagon in which, to date, he has impressed. He has just the one loss, to Mike Swick in 2009. In his last outing Saunders "destroyed" a very capable Marcus Davis in the first round with a barrage of punches and knees. Expect a similar gameplan from Saunders, plenty of punches, kicks and knees in an attempt to unsettle his opponent. Ellenberger, also an accomplished boxer, is likely to trade with Saunders initially, but is more likely to want to take this to the floor where he can impose his wrestling and BJJ. Both are capable of gaining a KO or a submission. This could be a contender for any of the three "awards" of the night.
Prediction :- Ellenberger by TKO - R3.

Shane Carwin (11-0-0) vs. Frank Mir (13-4-0) (for interim heavyweight title) decides who is next in line to take on Brock Lesnar for the Heavyweight Title. Mir is desperate, almost to the point of obsession, to get that opportunity to take back the belt which he lost to Lesnar in July of last year. He has "bulked" himself up to the 265lb limit in readiness for Lesnar. Before then, though, he has to get past the NCAA Division 2 wrestler Carwin. Also at the 265lb limit is the currently unbeaten fighter from Colorado. Carwin has gained plaudits from many areas of the MMA world in his career to date, especially with his 3 impressive victories in the UFC, over Christian Wellisch, Neil Wain and Gabriel Gonzaga. He has not yet been beyond the 3rd minute of any contest, as all of Carwins 11 professional victories have come in the first round, with the last four via KO/TKO. This contest sees Carwin taking a huge step up in class of opponent against the experienced, and former Title holder, Mir. Carwin showed that he can recover from being "rocked", in his last outing, against a lacklustre Gonzaga. Whether he will be able to do so against Mir, or, whether he will be able to overpower Mir with his undoubted wrestling ability remains to be seen. It will not be easy, as he will be entering the Octagon against, arguably, the UFC's number 1 Heavyweight, Lesnar excepted. When Mir returned to the UFC from his motorcycle accident in 2006 he looked like his career was over with some very poor performances, but after victory over Antoni Haardonk in August 2007, he has applied himself, and has again proven he can be the best of the best. He has magnificent BJJ skills and has now added excellent boxing and Muay Thai, most recently under the tutorage of Mark Dellagrotte. He was overwhelmed by Lesnar at UFC 100 and sees Carwin as the perfect opponent in readiness for a third battle with the champion. Expect this fight to start slowly with both fighters feeling each other out and throwing the odd punch, with Mir likely to add a leg kick or two. It is likely that Mir will want to keep this on the feet to prove that his boxing is now something to be feared. Carwins gameplan is more of a conundrum - will he want to stand and trade, or, will he want to takedown Mir and try and impose his wrestling skills ? Will Carwin have the stamina to go beyond the first round ? Mir will be happy wherever this fight goes. Mir has only ever been beyond the second round once in his career, so his stamina may also be tested.
Prediction :- Mir by TKO - R2.

Georges St-Pierre (19-2-0) vs. Dan Hardy (23-6-0) (for welterweight title) is the main event of the evening and sees the first ever UK fighter to compete for a UFC Title. Team Rough House fighter Dan "The Outlaw" Hardy steps into the Octagon to face, arguably, the best pound for pound fighter in the World, Georges St. Pierre. The Canadian has gained that accolade by defeating all placed in front of him. He has two defeats on his record, to Matt Hughes and Matt Serra, both of which he has avenged in destructive fashion. He has beaten the best in the World with victories over Hughes, BJ Penn, Sean Sherk, Jon Fitch and Thiago Alves. He is an overwhelming favourite in this contest with very few, outside of the UK, giving Hardy much of a chance. GSP is regarded as the "ultimate fighter" and is well rounded in all aspects of the sport. He has excellent wrestling, holds a 3rd degree black belt in Kyokushin karate, a black belt in BJJ and has excellent Muay Thai. Recently, though, he has gained a reputation for being a "takedown" specialist who grinds out a victory. It is unlikely that GSP will want to change that reputation in this contest against the Englishman, unless he wishes to prove a point. It is doubtful that he will as Hardy is a very dangerous stand up fighter with heavy hands. Hardy will want to keep this stood and will want GSP to trade with him. He has never been KO'd and has only 3 submission defeats, all coming in his early career, with the last being in 2005. Hardy's only loss in his last 13 contests came in December 2007 when he was disqualified for an accidental groin kick. He is a very gritty determined fighter who does not know the meaning of "giving up". He has been in many wars over the years and has, more often than not, come away victorious. So far in his UFC career "The Outlaw" has had excellent victories over Gono, Markham, Davis and Swick. He was the "underdog" in all four yet came through as the victor in all. Hardy, though, will have to have the performance of his life to overcome the champion and take home the belt. GSP is not like any fighter that Hardy has faced before and will push and test Hardy's resolve and ability to the full. Hardy has the power to KO his illustrious opponent and will need to use his excellent counterpunching ability to do so. He also has two possible advantages going into this fight. The first being that he has used his tremendous ability at "talking up" the fight and using psychology in the hope that he can put some doubt in the champions mind - a ploy that he used to great effect prior to his contest with Marcus Davis. The second is that he has nothing to lose as he is expected to be defeated easily by GSP. All the pressure is therefore on the Canadian to come away with the victory. Although my heart says, and hopes, that Hardy can win this fight and bring the belt home to the UK, my head says that the Champion will retain his belt in a hard fought battle.
Prediction :- St. Pierre by Decision.