By Dean Weir
Concert Arena, Ferrari World,
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
Saturday 10th April 2010
18:00 BST
Live on ESPN.
A groundbreaking time for the UFC as they return with their first ever event in Abu Dhabi. Not only because this is the Middle East, but it will also be the first event where the infamous Octagon will be "outdoors".
Yet again, an excellent and exciting card has been put together with another two Title fights on the night. BJ Penn defends his Lightweight belt and Anderson Silva is putting his Middleweight belt on the line for a sixth time.
PRELIMINARY CARD
Mostapha Al Turk (6-5-0) vs. Jon Madsen (4-0-0) sees the return to the Octagon for Al Turk following his "unfortunate" defeat to Mirko Cro Cop and the poke in the eye episode. The UFC had not been too kind to Al Turk with his debut against Cheick Kongo preceding Cro Cop. On this occasion he has been tasked with taking on the TUF housemate Madsen who is not in the same class as Al Turks previous UFC opponents. Madsen is, however, a very strong wrestler who has 2 wins each via decision and KO/TKO. Madsen gameplan will surely be to take the fight to the ground and impose his much greater grappling skills on his opponent. Al Turk will be looking to keep standing and look for the KO and his first victory in the UFC. The outcome is likely to be decided on whether Al Turk can avoid the takedown attacks of the Illinois native.
Prediction :- Al Turk by TKO - R2.
Paul Kelly (9-2-0) vs. Matt Veach (11-1-0) has Madsens stablemate, and fellow wrestler, Veach making his third UFC appearence against the UK's experienced Kelly. Veach has had only one defeat in his pro career to date, which came in his last outing against the man hoping to take away BJ Penns belt later in the evening, Frankie Edgar. Kelly will also be hoping to get back to winning ways after his loss to Denis Siver at UFC 105 following "that" spinning back kick. This is an interesting match-up as both fighters strength lies in their wrestling. Whether Veach will want to stand with Kelly remains to be seen, but it is unlikely that he opt to do so. He will also be very aware that he cannot allow Kelly to take him down and gain the dominant position and use his excellent ground and pound. He will also be very aware that Kelly has dangerous elbows which cut open fellow Brit Paul Taylor and Troy Mandaloniz.
Prediction :- Kelly by TKO - R3.
Brad Blackburn (15-10-1) vs. DaMarques Johnson (10-7-0) is another interesting bout. Neither has an outstanding pro record, although Blackburn has some notable victories on his CV with victories over Jay Hieron, Chris Wilson and Ryo Chonan. Both Johnson and Blackburn have their most recent victories over the same opponent, Edgar Garcia. Blackburn via split decision and Johnson via submission. These results may give an indication as to how this match-up will pan out. Johnson being the more skilled on the ground, with Blackburn being the more capable stand up fighter. Blackburns last submission victory came in 2004 over Ronny Morales, with Johnsons last KO victory being in 2008. It is likely that Johnson will stand and trade initially but very unlikely that he will want to continue there for long, and will want to take Blackburn down and use his BJJ. It will not be an easy task as Blackburn is durable and often takes his opponent to a decison.
Prediction :- Johnson by Decision.
Nick Osipczak (5-0-0) vs. Rick Story (9-3-0) has Team Rough House fighter Osipczak making his third UFC appearence. He will be hoping to extend his unbeaten record to six straight wins, which have all come via stoppage. He will have to be at his very best if he is to stop Story, a wrestler who is yet to taste defeat via submission or KO. Story showed his durability, and heart, in his most recent loss, at UFC 99 when he took John Hathaway the distance. His gameplan will likely be to take the Brit down and impose his will using his wrestling abilities, however, Osipczak has excellent BJJ skills to add to his impressive stand up. "Slick" is unlikely to be too worried about where this battle takes place, but, would prefer it to remain on the feet. A hard fight to call and one that is definitely a contender for "Fight of the Night".
Prediction :- Osipczak by Decision.
John Gunderson (22-7-0) vs. Paul Taylor (10-5-1) is another possible contender for the "Fight of the Night", an award that Taylor has earned three times previously in his UFC career. He may not be too keen on gaining that accolade again as he lost all three of those fights, to Paul Kelly, Marcus Davis and Chris Lytle. This is Taylors first time at 155lb for Taylor who found the higher weight of 170lb a struggle against his bigger opponents. He should be much stronger at this weight class and will certainly be hoping to add another KO victory to his record. He will not have an easy ride against the gritty American, who is predominantly a ground fighter, but, who has been under the tutorage of Shawn Tompkins for this bout against kickboxer Taylor. Gunderson has amassed 22 victories in his pro career, mainly in the smaller shows in the US against lesser known opposition. This may be a factor against Taylor who has fought much better quality opponents in his UFC career to date, even though he only has a record of 3 wins and 4 losses with the organisation. Taylor will be well aware that Gunderson will be looking to take this fight to the floor where he can use his superior wrestling and submission skills. The outcome will likely be decided by whether Taylor can withstand the takedown attempts and whether he can impose his "Relentless" striking skills upon the American.
Prediction :- Taylor by TKO - R2.
Phil Davis (5-0-0) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (9-0-0) is another classic wrestler vs puncher match-up. Davis made a very impressive UFC debut at UFC 109 in February of this year, with a unanimous decision victory over Brian Stann. He is a NCAA divison 1 champion and BJJ blue belt. Gustafsson is an excellent boxer who made an even more impressive debut at UFC 105 in Manchester last November, when he KO'd Jared Hamann in just 41 seconds. Neither man has been defeated in their pro careers to date and neither has faced top quality opposition yet, except in their last outings. It does not take a genius to figure out the gameplans of these two comatants. Gustafsson wil want to stand and box looking for a KO as early as possible, whereas Davis will undoubtedly be looking to takedown the Swede at every opportunity. Gustafsson has some wrestling ability, but it is unlikely this will be good enough to nullify Davis' takedown attempts.
Prediction :- Davis by TKO - R2.
MAIN CARD
Kendall Grove (11-6-0) vs. Mark Munoz (7-1-0) kicks off the main televised card with a contest that is likely to be very explosive and which is very unlikely to go the full three rounds. Both are capable of winning via KO or submission. Between them they have only gone the distance on five occasions, both twice coming away with the decision and Grove being on the losing end on the one occasion. "Da Spyder" will be looking to use his huge height and reach advantage over his "smaller" opponent with his superior Muay Thai skills. Even though he possesses excellent BJJ skills, Grove will want to keep this standing, as he will not want NCAA division 1 wrestler Munoz putting him on his back. Grove has also been susceptible to KO's with four losses via that method to Joe Riggs, Hector Ramirez, Patrick Cote and Jorge Rivera. Ex WEC man Munoz has only been defeated on one occasion, when he was on the receiving end of a Matt Hammill head kick at UFC 96. Munoz will likely look to get inside the long reach of Grove early on and land the KO blow to Groves suspect chin. Whether either will want to be on the ground is questionable, Munoz has excellent wrestling and Grove has a high number of submission victories on his CV. This match-up could produce either "KO of the Night" or "Submission of the Night".
Prediction :- Munoz by TKO - R1.
Rafael dos Anjos (13-4-0) vs. Terry Etim (14-2-0) could be a contender for "Fight of the Night", "Knockout of the Night" or "Submission of the Night". Both fighters have gained the majority of their victories via submission, Dos Anjos with 6 from 12, and Etim with an impressive 11 from 14. The Brit will prefer the fight to remain on the feet where he can showcase his excellent Muay Thai, and will attempt to do so using his height advantage and superior reach. It is very unlikely that Dos Anjos will want any part of a stand up battle with Etim and will be looking to takedown his opponent at every opportunity, where he will believe he has the superior Jiu-Jitsu. Etim will not be too disgruntled if the battle takes place on the floor as he has excellent ground skills, gained from the teachings of Luta Livre World Champion Marcello Brigadeiro. Etim's only two defeats have come via decision, to Gleison Tibau and Rich Clementi, and he is currently on a four fight win streak, which he is likely to extend to five. Dos Anjos is a top quality BJJ exponent with good hands but his all round ability comes up short of Etims.
Prediction :- Etim by KO - R2.
Matt Hughes (43-7-0) vs. Renzo Gracie (13-6-1) is the coming together of two legends in the MMA World. Future UFC "Hall of Famer" Hughes been victorious over, and been defeated by, the best in the business. 6th degree Brazilian Jiu Jitsu Black Belt Gracie, has fought some of the biggest names in MMA, but has not always been so successful, coming off second best to the likes of BJ Penn, Kazushi Sakuraba and Dan Henderson. Both are surely coming to the end of their careers and this is likely to be the end for the loser. Hughes, having come off a decision victory over Matt Serra, will be looking to keep this fight standing and will be looking for the KO. Even though he has been one of the greatest exponents of dominating wrestling in his career, he should not be looking to compete with Gracie on the floor. The Brazilian is one of the Worlds best submission exponents and will be very dangerous, even at the ripe old age of 43. Whether Gracie will have the gas to last the distance remains to be seen. It is almost certain that he will need to call on all of his reserves if he is to overcome the machine that is Matt Hughes.
Prediction :- Hughes by TKO - R2.
Champ B.J. Penn (15-5-1) vs. Frankie Edgar (11-1-0) (for lightweight title) sees "The Prodigy" defending his Lightweight belt for a fourth time. Since his move to 155lb in 2007 he has looked unbeatable, with dominant performances over Jens Pulver, Joe Stevenson, Sean Sherk, Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez. His only hiccup in this time has been a defeat to Georges St Pierre when he moved up to 170lb when he he was totally dominated. Penn has improved his boxing to a level that could, arguably, be compared to a pro boxer. It is well known that he has World class Jiu-Jitsu, which he has called upon too often in the last three years. Edgar is regarded by many as the man who can end the run of "The Prodigy" as he is also an excellent boxer. Only being a purple belt, his BJJ may be found wanting against a practioner as strong as Penn. How Edgar will approach this fight will be interesting. Will he want to force a fast pace and "box" with Penn, will he want to attempt the takedowns and impose his wrestling as St Pierre did so successfully ? It is doubtful that he will be able to manhandle Penn so much and his likely success will come via stand up.
Prediction :- Penn by TKO - R3.
Champ Anderson Silva (25-4-0) vs. Demian Maia (12-1-0) (for middleweight title) is the Main Event and second Title fight of the night. Silva is defending his Middleweight belt for the sixth time, which, he too, has been very dominant when defending since taking the title from Rich Franklin in 2006. Two very dominant contest at Light-Heavyweight have added ammunition to the argument that he is the best pound for pound fighter in MMA today. Maia has been very vocal in the fact that he has been improving his "stand up" in readiness for this contest and made a show of this in his last outing, a unanimous decision victory, against Dan Miller. It is very doubtful that Maia will want any part of a fight on the feet with Silva, where he will surely come to the same demise as some of Silva's recent opponents. His best, and possibly only hope, is to make this a grappling battle where he will hope to add to his eight previous submission victories. If he does manage to get Silva to the ground then he will not find it easy against his fellow BJJ black belt. Getting Silva to the floor will be a major problem for Maia also. Silva is also a black belt in Judo and Tae Kwon Do. His speed and agility is almost on a par with that of training partner Lyoto Machida, so Maia will have to be at his very best to take the belt from the outstanding Silva.
Prediction :- Silva by TKO - R2.